If you look at Assad like that, there’s no reason for Secretary of State Warren Christopher to give Assad the time of day, much less a week of his time. And certainly no cause for the highest-ranking diplomat of the world’s only superpower to face the intransigence – the downright impudence–of a dictator who stood Christopher up as he shuttled last week between Jerusalem and Damascus.
But if you care about the neighborhood, you’ve got to deal with Syria. And because it’s Israel’s neighborhood too, Washington cares enough to swallow a little pride. “I just can’t permit myself to be deterred by these incidents,” Christopher told CNN. “I try to just push on.”
With Christopher’s help, Israel succeeded in getting a deal with Syria last week, one a little different from the verbal understanding it had before the recent cross-fire in Lebanon began: Hizbullah guerrillas would stop raining Katyusha rockets on northern Israel, and Israeli forces would not attack civilians in southern Lebanon. This time the agreement would be in writing, although unsigned, and an international committee would monitor compliance. The sheet of paper was far less than what Israel wanted–and was a triumph for Assad. He facilitated the Hizbullah attacks, but wound up embraced as a peacemaker. “In a way,” says one senior Israeli official, “we have crowned Assad king of the the Arab world.”
Is Assad a strategic genius? Not really. He’s more a base-line player. He just keeps sending those balls across the net–or Katyusha rockets across the Lebanese-Israeli border–until his enemy makes a mistake. For a week, his Lebanese allies were under fire and his army was being humiliated by Israel. Then, in a ghastly accident two weeks ago, Israel slaughtered 102 women, children and old men seeking refuge at a United Nations base near Qana. Suddenly, Israel needed a deal–and Christopher needed to talk to Assad.
That put an end to an attempt to isolate the Syrian leader. The United States, Israel and Arab allies had been fencing Assad off from the rest of the neighborhood. Israel’s military and intelligence relations with Turkey, to Syria’s north, and Jordan, to its south, marginalized Assad. The anti-terrorism summit organized by Egypt and the United States in Sharm al-Sheikh last month was meant to let Assad and his Iranian friends know that continuing to support terrorism, and failing to make peace, would make them pariahs. Yet after Qana, Assad found not only Christopher but European officials scurrying to his door. Even without the Lebanon crisis, though, it might not be safe to ignore Assad. Says one Israeli diplomat, “If you push Assad to the sidelines he not only screams, he kicks. And he has pointed shoes.” In other words, the Syrian leader’s support for terrorism may make him ripe for punishment–but too dangerous to punish. Incidents like the 1983 Marine-barracks bombing in Beirut bore the marks of Syrian support. Washington doesn’t want to risk more U.S. terror victims.
The head of another Arab government gave NEWSWEEK his grudging appreciation of Assad’s talents. “He is a very patient leader and he is an opportunist of the first order,” he said. “He knows how to position himself and to wait for events to fall into place to serve his purpose. He knows how to ally himself with the thing and its opposite at the same time, and how to present himself as the arbiter of all opposing forces. He knows how to portray certain areas as quagmires nobody could enter, and then he enters and he becomes the only man who could control the situation.” Last week, once again, Assad proved that was true. Lebanon’s Katyushas fell quiet as quickly as if he’d thrown a switch. It might be satisfying to slap Assad, but until the neighborhood changes, it wouldn’t be wise.
