Without a single real vote yet cast, Clinton has already won the first primary, the one that takes place in the State of Mind, where the chattering class of reporters and Democratic Party activists lives. These folks are important: they create “spin” and “heat” and factors that don’t need quotation marks, like money. Perception often becomes reality. Only fools predict presidential politics, but with Douglas Wilder’s withdrawal last week, Clinton–who has good rapport with black voters-is the one Democrat with a chance to wrap it up early.

Part of the appeal is pragmatic: Clinton’s regional pedigree and energetic middle-of-the-roadism may be the only bet for neutralizing George Bush in the Electoral College, And in a year when people are desperate for some real answers, he’s whip-smart and well prepared. Starting in 1985 Clinton used the shell of a group of moderate Democrats called the Democratic Leadership Council to fashion an innovative platform that moves beyond traditional liberal and conservative remedies. Unlike most politicians, he hasn’t simply memorized a few statistics. He breathes the stuff as he campaigns-a policy glad-hander, comfortable both pressing the flesh and fleshing out ideas for the press.

By building on the concept of “personal responsibility,” Clinton has developed a whole post-New Deal agenda for the Democratic Party. Among his best ideas: a college-loan program paid back either as a small percentage of withheld future income or with a few years of national service as teachers, police officers or child-care workers; a national examination system and annual report cards for every school to measure progress in meeting world-class math and science standards; a national apprenticeship program to train workers; a venture-capital-gains tax credit to spur true investment in new enterprises; ending unlimited tax deductions for excessive executive pay and investment abroad.

But because Clinton is running as Mr. Beef, his positions will be held up for more-than-usual inspection (just as a candidate who runs on character finds his personal life especially scrutinized). Bob Kerrey was quite right last week to attack Clinton for campaigning on substance but not proposing a real health-care plan. This is more than just the hot issue of the moment; without figuring out the specifics of health, all of the welfare and budgetary issues that Clinton talks about don’t cohere. It’s understandable why Clinton wouldn’t want to take the political hit involved in calling for new taxes to pay for national health insurance (as Kerrey does). But then he can’t very well claim to be the candidate confronting the public with hard truths.

This extends to his overall fiscal program. One of his best ideas, courtesy of the Progressive Policy Institute, is to limit the growth of the “consumption” portion of the budget to the growth of per capita income, thereby forcing government to live within its means. But Clinton rarely tells audiences that adherence to this plan would mean that most benefit programs would face curtailment. And the candidate who says he believes in “empowerment not entitlement” lags behind even Bush in forcing well-heeled retirees to pay a larger share of Medicare, a huge budget buster.

Or consider government employees, whose unchecked–and often unjustified-staffing and benefits are a huge budget item at all levels of government. Which of his hardheaded ideas did he soft-pedal to win the unofficial backing of the major union of government workers (AFSCME)? Workfare, perhaps? (Unions tend to hate it.) Bill Clinton can’t have it everywhichway. If he tries, he’ll lose his edge and make that slick nickname stick.