Tonight in Glendale, the New England Patriots (6-6, 3-3 away) visit the Arizona Cardinals (4-8, 1-6 home) at State Farm Stadium on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. EST. ESPN will carry the broadcast.

The Patriots need a win to keep pace with the Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets (both 7-5) in the race for the final Wild-Card berth in the AFC. The Cardinals haven’t been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention but, even with a win tonight, would still be 2.5 games back of a postseason spot with just four remaining. Effectively, Arizona is playing out the string on a highly disappointing season.

Patriots vs. Cardinals Odds

The Pats come into Arizona as 1.5-point road favorites and -120 on the moneyline. The Cardinals come back as +100 home underdogs, while the game total sits at 43.5 (-110 both ways).

This marks the fourth consecutive game, and tenth time this season, that Arizona has been a moneyline underdog.

New England’s record against the spread (ATS) this season is ever-so-slightly in the black at 6-5-1. The Pats are 5-0-1 ATS in their six wins and 1-5 in their six losses. They come into tonight’s game on the heels of two straight losses, both straight-up and ATS. In Week 12, they took a 26-23 lead into the fourth quarter at Minnesota but were outscored 10-0 in the final frame. In Week 13, they were soundly beaten by Buffalo at home (24-10), getting outgained 355-242.

New England’s over/under record sits at 5-7, including four unders in its past five. Scoring has been a struggle for the Pats much of the season, especially of late. Their 20.2 PPG average is in the bottom half of the league, and they’ve only managed 46 points in their past three games combined (15.3 PPG).

After an encouraging rookie season, second-year QB Mac Jones is suffering something of a sophomore slump. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is down from 1.68-to-1 last year to 1-to-1 this year, while his passer rating has fallen from 92.5 to 87.0. His offensive line is to blame for some of the decline. Jones was sacked just 28 times in 17 games last season, but has already been sacked 25 times in just nine games this year.

The New England defense, however, has come to the rescue. The unit is sixth in the league in points allowed (18.8 PPG) and has been the catalyst behind the Patriots’ +23 point differential (eighth-best in the NFL).

Despite an ugly 4-8 straight-up record, the Cards have gone 6-6 against the spread so far. They covered the number in all four of their wins, plus last week’s 25-24 loss to the Chargers as 2.5-point underdogs and Week 5’s 20-17 setback to the Eagles as 5.5-point ‘dogs.

Arizona is one of just ten teams that has cashed more overs than unders on the year (8-4 to the over). Unfortunately for Cardinals fans, that hasn’t been due to stellar offensive play. The Arizona defense ranks dead-last in the NFL in points allowed (26.8 PPG), while the offense is just 17th (22.0 PPG). Only fives teams have a worse point differential than the Cardinals’ -57 mark. The absence of Chandler Jones (now with the Raiders) and Jordan Hicks (now with the Vikings) from the Arizona front seven has been palpable.

Starting pivot Kyler Murray has taken a step back compared to 2021. Murray finished last season with a 100.6 passer rating and 69.2 completion percentage. This year, he’s completing just 66.3 percent of his throws and his passer rating has dipped to 87.1, worse than even his rookie season in 2019 (87.4). The fact that WR1 DeAndre Hopkins was suspended for the first six games of 2022 certainly didn’t help, but Nuk’s return didn’t produce a noticeable uptick from the Arizona offense. The Cardinals are just 1-5 in their last six games while averaging 23.2 PPG, barely a point over their season average.

Patriots vs. Cardinals Prediction

While the 2022 Patriots are anything but dominant, they are at least balanced and disciplined, and they’ve proven that they can take care of business against subpar teams. New England is 5-1 straight-up as a favorite this season and that trend will continue on Monday against an Arizona squad that still seems to be searching for terra firma after significant roster turnover last year.

Pick: New England moneyline (-120)

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