Monday night in Cincinnati, the AFC North-leading Bengals (11-4, 5-1 home, 12-3 ATS) play host to the Buffalo Bills (12-3, 6-2 away, 7-7-1 ATS), who have already locked up the AFC East and can reclaim the number-one seed in the conference from the Chiefs with a win. The Bengals would clinch their second straight division title with a victory and would stay in the hunt for top seed in the AFC’s portion of the NFL playoff bracket.
The odds for the game are razor tight. Buffalo is currently a 1.5-point road favorite in Monday’s NFL odds after opening at -1.
Bills vs. Bengals Odds
The game total remains at 49.5, which is unchanged from the Week 17 opening odds.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. EST at Paycor Stadium. ESPN will carry the broadcast.
Two long win streaks on the line
Monday’s game will pit the two longest win streaks in the AFC against one another. Only the NFC’s San Francisco 49ers - winners of nine straight - have a longer active streak than the Bengals (7) and Bills (6).
The ATS trends haven’t been nearly as kind to Buffalo. Despite a 12-3 straight-up record, the Bills are only a .500 team against the spread, sitting at 7-7-1 entering Monday. They are 3-6 ATS in their past nine.
The Bengals, on the other hand, have the best ATS record in the league at 12-3. Cincinnati covered the spread in all 11 of its victories, plus a 19-17 loss at Baltimore in Week 5 as three-point underdogs.
Bills and Bengals have both cashed a lot of unders
Both teams have skewed heavily to the under this season. Buffalo is 5-10 over/under while Cincinnati is 5-9-1 o/u. However, that trend was much more prominent early in the season than it has been of late.
Through the first five weeks of the season, they combined to go 1-9 o/u. In their past 14 games combined, they are an even 7-7 o/u. (Buffalo is 4-3 to the over; Cincinnati is 3-4.)
There is no recent history between the sides, at least not any that’s relevant. They last met in 2019 at Orchard Park when second-year pro Josh Allen led the Bills to a 21-17 victory over an Andy Dalton-led Bengals team. (Joe Burrow was busy winning a national championship at LSU.)
Injury news and notes
Cincinnati lost offensive tackle La’el Collins to a torn ACL in Week 16. Hakeem Adeniji, a 2020 sixth-round pick out of Kansas, will be his replacement. Many pundits deemed the loss of Collins significant, but the PFF player grades disagree to some extent. Collins had a rating of 57.9, which was a lowly 70th out of 81 qualified OTs. Adeniji’s rating is only marginally lower (52.8).
The Bengals could also be without the team’s sack leader, Sam Hubbard (6.5 sacks). The edge rusher is questionable with a calf injury.
On the Buffalo side, safety Jordan Poyer is questionable with a knee injury. His absence would be a blow, with the Bills already down Micah Hyde and Christian Benford in the secondary.
Bills vs. Bengals prediction
What the Bengals’ impressive win streak fails to show is that Cincinnati has had a difficult time putting two quality of halves of football together over the past three weeks. They were shutout for the first 20-plus minutes against the Browns in Week 14; they trailed Tampa Bay 17-3 at the half in Week 15; and they almost blew a 22-0 halftime lead to New England in Week 16, holding on for a 22-18 victory thanks to a Patriots fumble at the 5-yard-line in the final minute.
In short, there is too much inconsistency in Cincinnati’s performance for me to bet them against arguably the best team in the NFL. But I’m also not comfortable betting against the Bengals at home. When this offense is clicking, it’s borderline unstoppable.
Instead, my favorite play in this game is a player prop: Joe Burrow under 0.5 interceptions at -108 odds. Buffalo is in the top-half of the league with 14 INTs on the year, and Burrow is averaging nearly one per game (13 picks in 15 games). But his track record at home over the past two seasons favors no interceptions. Burrow didn’t throw an interception in five of nine home games last season, and he’s kept a clean stat line in four of six home games this season.
Buffalo’s defense hauled in at least one pick in its first four road games this year, but doesn’t have a single interception in its past four. With the Bills’ secondary banged up, I am betting on that streak running to five games on Monday night.
Best bet: Joe Burrow under 0.5 interceptions (-108)
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