Tonight in Tampa, the agonizingly poor NFC South takes center stage on Monday Night Football as the New Orleans Saints (4-8, 1-4 away) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6, 3-3 home).

Kickoff is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. EST at Raymond James Stadium with ESPN carrying the broadcast.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds

In a someone-has-to-win type of game, the Bucs have been established as 3.5-point home favorites.

Tampa is -190 to win on the moneyline with New Orleans coming back at +160. The game total sits at 40.5 with the over slightly favored (-115o/-105u).

Subtracting the juice, the moneyline odds give Tampa Bay a 63 percent implied probability of winning, leaving the Saints with just a 37 percent implied win probability.

The Saints’ record against the spread is identical to their straight-up record (4-8). They covered the spread in three of their four wins, and failed to cover in seven of their eight losses.

New Orleans’ over/under record sits at an even 6-6. The team has fared better in its high-scoring games, with a 3-3 win/loss record in the games that hit the over and a 1-5 record in the games that stayed under.

From an ATS perspective, Tampa Bay has been the single-most disappointing team in the league. Its 3-7-1 ATS records is deadlast among the 32 teams in the NFL.

After winning and covering their first two games of the season, the Bucs have only covered once in their past nine games (a 21-16 win over Seattle). Their 16-13 win over the Rams as three-point chalk resulted in a push.

Their O/U record skews heavily towards the under at 2-9, including three straight unders.

Despite a dismal offensive performance to date, Tampa still sits first in the NFC South, and will remain atop the division regardless of Monday night’s outcome. The Atlanta Falcons are second in the South at 5-8 with the Carolina Panthers and Saints both 4-8.

Injury News & Notes

Tampa Bay OT Tristan Wirfs, a 2021 First-Team All-Pro, remains sidelined with an ankle injury. Wirfs is the only notable player who’s definitively been ruled out for Tampa, but several other Bucs are listed as doubtful or questionable, including defensive end Akiem Hicks (doubtful, foot), safety Antoine Winfield (doubtful, ankle), cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting (doubtful, quad), safety Mike Edwards (doubtful, hamstring), tight end Cam Brate (questionable, illness), running back Leonard Fournette (questionable, hip).

On the Saints side, injuries are piling up as well. Defensive end Payton Turner (ankle), cornerback P.J. Williams (knee), safety J.T. Gray (hamstring), and tight end Juwan Johnson (ankle) were all listed as out on the final injury report.

Star corner Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) was listed as questionable, along with linebacker Pete Werner (ankle) and receiver Kevin White (illness).

Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The game total of 40.5 here is generous. It’s not often that NFL game totals land in the 30s, but this is a matchup that warranted as much.

Both teams rank in the bottom-12 in the league in scoring. New Orleans is averaging 20.8 PPG and Tampa just 18.2. Tampa’s defense, on the other hand, has the fifth-best scoring average in the NFL at 18.5 PPG and has held seven of its 11 opponents to 17 points or fewer (in regulation time).

Tampa quarterback Tom Brady is having one of the most-pedestrian seasons of his storied career. In his first two seasons with the Bucs, he averaged well over seven yards per pass. This year, that number is down at just 6.5. If he doesn’t improve that stat over the next six games, it will be his lowest mark since 2002, his second as a starter. Brady is on pace for just 21.6 TD passes; he hit 40 in each of the past two years.

On the opposite side, New Orleans starter Andy Dalton is once again struggling with turnovers in his first season as a Saint. Dalton has already tossed seven interceptions while only managing 14 touchdown passes.

The first meeting between these teams this season - back in Week 2 - ended 20-10. The teams could only muster a single field goal in the first half and nine points through the first three quarters. The offenses combined for just 568 total yards, and that was playing on the fast track at the Superdome.

The matchup prior (Dec. 2021) ended 9-0 in favor of the Saints as New Orleans handed Tom Brady his first shutout loss in 15 years.

With both defenses banged up, it’s possible that the offenses will find more success this time around. But I would expect the lack of defensive depth to rear its head later in the game, if at all. I will back another slow start between these all-too-familiar foes.

Pick: First half under 20.5 (-115)

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