Below, we’ll discuss why we think both offenses will have success in the early innings along with detailing a wager on one team’s total runs prop.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Updated MLB World Series Odds

Philadelphia sat as the World Series favorite (-120) after taking Game 1 but Houston’s returned as the favorite after claiming Game 2. Whichever team notches the win in Game 3 will see a hefty shift in their WS odds. 

Updated World Series MVP Odds

After his two-homer game in the series opener, Kyle Tucker has moved from +1000 to +550 to win MVP, sitting as the current odds-on favorite. Fellow Astro Framber Valdez isn’t far behind, jumping from +1100 to +650 following his 6.1 inning, one run showing in Game 2.

Philadelphia’s J.T. Realmuto is the biggest riser among Phillies, jumping from +1900 to +800 after clutching up with the game-winning home run in Game 1. Realmuto still sits behind Bryce Harper with the second-shortest odds to win MVP among Phillies players, though. 

Justin Verlander, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola are the biggest fallers after getting hit around in their opening starts. Their current odds indicate they all have less than a one-percent chance of taking home MVP honors.

Phillies-Astros World Series Game 3 Betting Odds

Moneyline odds

Astros -125 (implied probability 55. 56 percent) Phillies +105 (implied probability 48. 78 percent)

Over/Under odds

Over 8: +100 (implied probability 50. 00 percent) Under 8: -120 (implied probability 54. . 55 percent)

Houston sits as a slight favorite in Game 3, which shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given the Astros were around a -165 favorite in Game 1 and a -145 favorite in Game 2.

The over/under is the highest its been all series (6.5 runs in Game 1; 7 runs in Game 2) with both teams’ No. 3 starters getting the ball.

Best World Series Game 3 bet: First Five Innings OVER 4 total runs (-125)

With both teams’ moneylines priced fairly, we’ll bank on some early offense from both teams. Rather than betting the full game over 8, we’ll side with the first five innings as both bullpens enter Game 3 well-rested.

Citizens Bank Park was one of the more hitter-friendly environments this season, ranking seventh in Park Factor runs (1.046). Additionally, the Phillies’ offense is feasting at home in the postseason, entering Tuesday averaging seven runs per game to go along with their 5-0 record. Game 2 ended in a 5-2 final, but enough offense was generated by both teams which could have led to more runs being scored. The Phillies went 0-7 with runners in scoring position, and we don’t expect the Phillies to o-fer with RISP tonight. Moreover, Philadelphia’s offense could have its way with Lance McCullers Jr. as he’s due for some regression, sporting a 3.58 xFIP relative to his 2.27 ERA. 

On the flip side, Houston’s offense could grind out some long innings against Ranger Suárez, as his inability to generate strikeouts (26th percentile in K-rate, 17th percentile in whiff rate) spells trouble against a Houston offense that rarely strikes out (19.6% strikeout rate). We’ve seen runs scored early and often in the first two games of this World Series, as Game 3 projects to follow a similar trajectory.

Best World Series Game 3 prop bet: Phillies team total OVER 3.5 runs (-110)

Since we expect the Phillies to have success off McCullers, a wager on Philadelphia’s team total OVER is worth a look. There’s a chance the Phillies get nine at-bats, pegged as slight underdogs, aiding in their chances of generating four-plus runs. Philadelphia’s mashed 12 homers through their five postseason home games, sporting a solid .975 OPS as well.

Generating runs off Houston’s bullpen in the later innings complicates this wager a bit, but if they’re able to score two-to-three runs off McCullers, we still think they’re capable of scoring a run or two off Houston’s relief arms.