Projected American League standings
(All projections based on records through the All-Star break.)
Before the season the most probable teams to reach playoffs in the AL were the Indians, Astros, Yankees and Red Sox. Each team has played over 90 games and our projection hasn’t changed a bit: these four teams have the highest probabilities to reach the playoffs after the rest of the regular-season games were simulated.
The last wild-card spot was expected to be a very tight race between the Twins, Blue Jays, Mariners and Angels when every single game was simulated before the season. Toronto is out of the race, while the Angels’ situation doesn’t look very good, either.
MORE: Updated American League standings
Through July 17, AccuScore predicts that Seattle has the best chances among this group to reach the postseason with a 79-percent probability. The Athletics have played much better than expected and have over 15-percent probability to make the postseason.
The next highest probability to reach the playoffs belongs to the Twins, who have just over a 10-percent chance.
Projected National League standings
(All projections based on records through the All-Star break.)
In the National League, the season simulation resulted the highest probabilities for the Cubs, Nationals and Dodgers. There is no surprise that these are still the teams with highest postseason probabilities based on rest of the season simulations at the All-Star break. However, the rest of the NL playoff picture is not so clear.
The Nationals are a few games behind the Phillies and Braves, who have played better than simulations predicted before the season. With updated simulations Philly’s and Atlanta’s chances for making the playoffs are 27 percent and 58 percent, respectively.
MORE: Updated National League standings
In the NL Central, Milwaukee has the same amount of wins as Chicago, but the Brewers’ postseason probability is only 23 percent. Even though St. Louis is close behind them, the Cardinals’ playoff chances are a bit higher with 35 percent. It looks like there will be only one playoff team coming from the NL Central, but it will be interesting to see if these teams will enter the wild-card race.
The NL West is another division with multiple teams that have good chances for the postseason. The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies and Giants were within four games of first place at the break. The Rockies have played better than preseason simulations predicted, and updated numbers show a 10-percent chance to make the postseason. A competitive NL West should should make for a tight NL wild-card race, as well.
