A two-month hot start will now mean the same thing as a two-month hot finish. The short-terming would seem to favor the more established winning teams vs. upstart clubs, but there’s bound to be more unpredictability with batter and pitching performances, too, with a smaller sample size.
That makes the MLB odds a lot more interesting for 2020, from World Series futures to team win totals to individual player props. Here’s breaking down some of the better bets, with lines courtesy of SportsInsider.com:
MORE: Which MLB free-agent signings will help most in 2020?
MLB Futures for 2020
Odds to win World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers +400 New York Yankees +400 Houston Astros +1000 Minnesota Twins +1600 Tampa Bay Rays +1800 Atlanta Braves +2000 Cincinnati Reds +2000 Oakland Athletics +2000 New York Mets +2200 Chicago Cubs +2500 Chicago White Sox +2500 Washington Nationals +2500 Cleveland Indians +2800 St. Louis Cardinals +2800 Los Angeles Angels +3000 Milwaukee Brewers +3000 Philadelphia Phillies +3000 San Diego Padres +3000 Arizona Diamondbacks +5000 Boston Red Sox +5000
The Dodgers and Yankees are heavy favorites, but the Rays and A’s are better plays for payouts as it feels like a team from that top eight will win it all. The Reds, after their spending spree, have emerged as the sleeper darlings of the NL.
Odds to win American League
New York Yankees +210 Houston Astros +450 Minnesota Twins +800 Oakland Athletics +1000 Tampa Bay Rays +1000 Chicago White Sox +1200 Cleveland Indians +1500 Los Angeles Angels +1600 Boston Red Sox +2500
Given that there’s not much separation for the Twins here from the Athletics and Rays, and given that they are a more surefire division winner to be in the postseason tournament, hedge toward Minnesota here away from the Yankees and Astros.
Odds to win National League
Los Angeles Dodgers +175 Atlanta Braves +800 New York Mets +1000 Washington Nationals +1000 Cincinnati Reds +1100 St. Louis Cardinals +1200 Milwaukee Brewers +1400 Chicago Cubs +1500 Philadelphia Phillies +1600 San Diego Padres +2000 Arizona Diamondbacks +2500
So this should indicate to you that the NL Central is the division with the widest range of outcomes regarding the winner and potential wild card. The Reds are better with which to take a World Series shot, but still, the consensus is that the Cardinals and Brewers are “safer” bets to make the postseason and create some “devil magic.”
World Series exact matchup
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers +550 Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers +1400 Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers +2200 Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Dodgers +2400 Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers +2400 New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves +2500 Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers +2800 New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals +2800 New York Yankees vs New York Mets +3000 Cleveland Indians vs Los Angeles Dodgers +3300 Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers +3300 New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds +3300 New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals +3300 New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs +4000 Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers +5000 Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves +5000 New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies +5000
Here, let’s pull in the favorites in both the NL (Dodgers) and AL (Yankees) and combine them with two of the sleepers mentioned above to maximize the odds on both sides of the matchup.
MLB team wins in 2020
Based on the over/unders for every team’s regular-season win totals in 2020, here are the best bets:
Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 30½ Wins -130Under 30½ Wins +100
Madison Bumgarner puts some gloss on them, but it’s easier to believe they will finish a shade under .500.
Atlanta Braves
Over 33½ Wins -115Under 33½ Wins -115
With Freddie Freeman getting a late start to summer re-training after having COVID-19, that number could be harder to reach in a division with the Mets and Nationals.
Boston Red Sox
Under 30½ Wins -145Over 30½ Wins +115
This one is close, but there’s a good chance the Red Sox can eke out 31 wins to match their 2019 winning percentage.
Cincinnati Reds
Over 31½ Wins -130 Under 31½ Wins +100
Based on giving them some World Series future love, it makes sense for them to at least live up to the hype four games above .500.
Detroit Tigers
Over 22½ Wins -120 Under 22½ Wins -110
The Tigers were really bad in 2019, but with a shorter window of futility they can avoid being 16 games below .500.
Houston Astros
Over 34½ Wins -115Under 34½ Wins -115
This feels a little inflated given the bad vibes going into the season and the Athletics being formidable again.
Los Angeles Angels
Under 31½ Wins -125 Over 31½ Wins -105
With Joe Maddon, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, there’s some marquee talent here, but we know how that plays out with the Astros and Athletics.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 37½ Wins -130Over 37½ Wins +100
The Dodgers have a pretty massive total here for 38-22, but if there’s any team that can win 40 games in 2020, it would be them.
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 31½ Wins -115 Under 31½ Wins -115
The Brewers are being devalued too much for their offseason losses and could easily win the NL Central.
New York Yankees
Over 36½ Wins -125Under 36½ Wins -105
A 36-24 mark would still be very healthy in the AL, so taking the slight under here.
Oakland Athletics
Over 33½ Wins -115 Under 33½ Wins -115
Is this the year they propel over the Astros and actually win in the playoffs? That’s a pretty reasonable number with which to work.
Philadelphia Phillies
Under 30½ Wins -125 Over 30½ Wins -105
There’s too much of a crowd in the NL East to think they can get here behind the Braves, Mets and Nationals.
MLB player futures for 2020
AL MVP
Mike Trout +140 Gleyber Torres +1000 Aaron Judge +1200 Alex Bregman +1200 Francisco Lindor +1500 Rafael Devers +1500 Shohei Ohtani +1600 Matt Chapman +1800 Anthony Rendon +2000 Yoan Moncada +2000 DJ LeMaheiu +2500 Josh Donaldson +2500 Jose Ramirez +3000 Austin Meadows +4000 Gerrit Cole +4000 JD Martinez +4000 Jorge Polanco +4000 Jose Altuve +4000 Marcus Semien +4000 Vladimir Guerrero +4000 Yordan Alvarez +4000
Trout has yet to repeat in his terrific career and the odds make it boring, anyway. Judge and Torres can do major equal damage hitting back to back for the Yankees. But Chapman, the clear most valuable Athletic with his offense and defenses, tends to rip it up at the plate in August. He brings a nice return just outside of the favorites.
NL MVP
Ronald Acuna Jr +400 Christian Yelich +450 Mookie Betts +600 Juan Soto +800 Cody Bellinger +900 Fernando Tatis Jr +900 Bryce Harper +1500 Nolan Arenado +1600 Javier Baez +2200 Freddie Freeman +2500 Ketel Marte +2500 Kris Bryant +2500 Paul Goldschmidt +2500 Pete Alonso +2500
Acuna is a solid favorite to put the money on and run with decent return. With Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman not in there for Washington, watch for Soto to have a more standout, special season at 21. There’s too much competition for Yelich and Bellinger to follow their respective 2018 and 2019 wins.
MLB Home Run King
Joey Gallo +850 Mike Trout +1000 Pete Alonso +1000 Yordan Alvarez +1000 Aaron Judge +1200 Cody Bellinger +1600 Giancarlo Stanton +1600 Bryce Harper +2000 Eugenio Suarez +2000 Franmil Reyes +2000 Matt Olson +2000 Nelson Cruz +2000 Christian Yelich +2200 Miguel Sano +2200 Ronald Acuna Jr +2200 Eloy Jimenez +2500 JD Martinez +2500 Jorge Soler +2500 Josh Donaldson +2500 Khris Davis +2500 Nolan Arenado +2500 Vladimir Guerrero Jr +2500
Gallo is the favorite for hitting 22 home runs in 70 games last season. This is all about who can put together two massive months and likely get to 20 in 60 games after Alonso’s winning pace was one homer per three games. A healthy Judge has immediate appeal. Then consider that both Cruz and Yelich homered in 34 percent of their games played last season.
AL Cy Young
Gerrit Cole +250 Justin Verlander +500 Shane Bieber +550 Lucas Giolito +900 Charlie Morton +1400 Jose Berrios +1400 Mike Clevinger +1400 Tyler Glasnow +1400 Blake Snell +1600 Corey Kluber +1800 Zack Greinke +1800 James Paxton +2000 Luis Severino +2000 Frankie Montas +3000 Shohei Ohtani +3000 Dallas Keuchel +3217 Hyun-Jin Ryu +3300 Sean Manaea +3300
The Yankees have their shiny new favorite and Cole seems primed for his Cy after leading the AL in ERA last season. Watch out for the pair of Rays, Morton and Glasnow, playing spoiler.
NL Cy Young
Jacob DeGrom +350 Walker Buehler +600 Max Scherzer +700 Jack Flaherty +800 Stephen Strasburg +900 Yu Darvish +1000 Luis Castillo +1400 Patrick Corbin +1400 Noah Syndergaard +1800 Clayton Kershaw +2000 Trevor Bauer +2000 Zach Wheeler +2000 Aaron Nola +2500 Chris Paddack +2500 Brandon Woodruff +2800 Mike Soroka +2800 Sonny Gray +2800
Going Buehler over DeGrom at the top makes sense for much more return. Flaherty has the kind of stuff to also be a solid pick.
AL Rookie of the Year
Luis Robert +250 Jesus Luzardo +400 Brendan McKay +600 Casey Mize +1000 Jo Adell +1100 A.J. Puk +1800 Evan White +1800 Forrest Whitley +2000Nate Pearson +2200 Wander Franco +2500 Deivi Garcia +3300 Nick Madrigal +3300 Ryan Mountcastle +3300 Clarke Schmidt +4000 Brady Singer +5000 Logan Gilbert +5000 Sean Murphy +5000
Let’s go with what the eyes already tell us, that this comes down to the Cuban White Sox outfielder and the Peruvian Athletics pitcher. Don’t totally sleep on Pearson pitching the Blue Jays close to .500.
NL Rookie of the Year
Gavin Lux +200 Mitch Keller +750 Dylan Carlson +900 Carter Kieboom +1000 Dustin May +1200MacKenzie Gore +1200 Brendan Rogers +1500 Cristian Pache +2000 Joey Bart +2000 KeBryan Hayes +2000Kyle Wright +2000 Nico Hoerner +2000 Sixto Sanchez +2000 Jon Duplantier +2500 Alec Bohm +3300 Daulton Varsho +3300 Spencer Howard +4000
The shortstop Lux is a big favorite to continue the Dodgers’ big-time ROTY tradition, but the field has too many guys who can spoil, with pitchers Gore (Padres) and Wright (Braves) standing out in good spots.
MLB season specials in 2020
Most Home Runs
Over 20½ Home Runs -150 Under 20½ Home Runs +120
Someone will be tearing it up in the hottest part of the year with a well-rested bat ready to rip. Judge seems like the guy to make it happen.
Player to hit .400 or better
No -700 Yes +500
It’s fair to say 200 at-bats will be a healthy number over 60 games, which means someone will need to bang out at least 80 hits, averaging 1.5 per game. That’s an equivalent of 243 in 162 games, and only two players, Devers and Whit Merrifield, broke 200 hits in 2019. Asterisk or not, Ted Williams is easily safe for another year.
