Stanton is the most imposing power hitter in baseball today, blasting majestic 400-plus foot shots on a regular basis. He heads into his seventh big league season, but he’s had three of his seasons cut short by injury, including 2015 when he fractured his wrist in June and did not return to the field. However, he still hit 27 home runs in only 279 at-bats. His highest home run total was 37 in both 2012 and 2014, but neither year was the most home runs by a player that season.
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One positive for Stanton is his injuries haven’t been chronic or lingering, more fluky. His last two seasons have been cut short with a Michael Fiers pitch to the face and a hard swinging strike that injured his wrist. If he were to be available to play for all 162 games this season, he should set a career high in home runs and finally topple the 40 home run mark.
That’s a a big ‘if’ though, which is why a few other players might offer some more value at better prices.
Chris Davis just signed a seven year, $161 million deal to stay with Baltimore, and its a good thing he did because Camden Yards proved to be the most friendly home run park in baseball last season with 222 in 75 games for a 2.96 average per game. So you have Davis again at Camden Yards for half his games, he’s happy with a new contract, and he’s also won the MLB home run title twice — 47 last season and 53 in 2013. Odds at 15-to-1 seem to be the most attractive among strong candidates to contend.
It was thought before last season that Nelson Cruz’s home runs totals would drop dramatically due to playing half his games at Seattle’s pitcher friendly Safeco Field. In 2014, he played for Baltimore at Camdem Yards and led baseball with a career-high 40 home runs. Last season he hit 44 home runs — 17 at home, 27 away — to finish second in the home run race behind Davis. The 35-year-old has just come off the best two years of his career and is 20-to-1 to win the title.
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Another nice price on a quality bopper is Toronto’s Jose Bautista at 25-to-1. He won the home run title in 2010 with 54 and again in 2011 with 43. After two injury plagued seasons in 2012 and 2013, Bautista has been back to mashing with 75 homers over the past two seasons.
Yoenis Cespedes is still looking for a team, but is coming off a career year with 35 homers — 18 with the Tigers in 403 at-bats and 17 with the Mets in 230 at bats. Was last season just a freak thing — 26 homers in 2013 was his career high — or were we finally seeing the full maturation of Cespedes with the Mets? At 100-to-1 odds to lead baseball in home runs in 2016, he’s definitely worth a few bucks to find out.
Here’s a look at the entire Westgate odds board:
Most regular season home runs, 2016
GIANCARLO STANTON 8 MIKE TROUT 12 BRYCE HARPER 12 EDWIN ENCARNACION 15 KRIS BRYANT 15 NELSON CRUZ 20 JOSH DONALDSON 15 JOSE ABREU 25 MIGUEL SANO 30 JOSE BAUTISTA 25 CHRIS DAVIS 15 PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT 25 NOLAN ARENADO 25 TODD FRAZIER 25 CARLOS CORREA 30 ANTHONY RIZZO 30 ALBERT PUJOLS 30 GEORGE SPRINGER 30 MIGUEL CABRERA 30 CARLOS GONZALEZ 30 TROY TULOWITZKI 30 MARK TRUMBO 40 JUSTIN UPTON 40 J.D. MARTINEZ 40 KHRIS DAVIS 50 EVAN GATTIS 60 JOEY VOTTO 60 PEDRO ALVAREZ 60 HANLEY RAMIREZ 80 ADAM JONES 80 DAVID ORTIZ 100 MANNY MACHADO 100 MARK TEIXEIRA 100 YOENIS CESPEDES 100 RYAN BRAUN 100 JOC PEDERSON 100 FREDDIE FREEMAN 100 JAY BRUCE 100 PRINCE FIELDER 100 ADRIAN GONZALEZ 100 LUCAS DUDA 100 EVAN LONGORIA 100 CURTIS GRANDERSON 100 ANDREW McCUTCHEN 100 COREY DICKERSON 100 KYLE SCHWARBER 100 MAIKEL FRANCO 100 KYLE SEAGER 100 MATT KEMP 100 MATT ADAMS 100 KOLE CALHOUN 100 KENDRYS MORALES 100 BRIAN DOZIER 100 MICHAEL CONFORTO 100 RANDAL GRICHUK 100 YASIEL PUIG 100 COREY SEAGER 100 FIELD 15
***SEASON MUST CONSIST OF AT LEAST 150 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR EACH TEAM
***PLAYER MUST PLAY IN AT LEAST 1 REGULAR SEASON GAME FOR ACTION
***IN CASE OF A TIE – WINNERS ODDS ARE DIVIDED BY NUMBER OF WINNERS
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