Forty years ago Turkey’s generals hanged a democratically elected prime minister; three other governments have been ousted since then, most recently in 1998. Now the military is speaking out again and, for the first time in memory, America and the European Union are coming under fire. To anyone mindful of Turkey’s checkered history, this raises serious questions about where the country is heading, and whether it might be wavering in its traditional Western alliance.
No one’s predicting another coup. But last week, in a series of seminars and lectures to select audiences, Turkey’s top generals outlined a disconcertingly aggressive and strongly nationalist vision. Claiming still to be committed to joining Europe, Chief of the General Staff Hilmi Ozkok nonetheless blasted the EU’s “double standards” concerning Turkey’s application for membership. Another senior officer labeled Europe’s calls for increased rights for Turkey’s 12 million ethnic Kurds as “a threat to national unity.” That puts Turkey’s civilian government in a serious dilemma–to risk a bruising confrontation in Parliament, possibly as early as this week, or back down on some of the urgent reforms demanded by Brussels. All this is sure to give Europeans pause as they contemplate whether or not to begin accession talks with Turkey next year.
The United States came under even harsher attack. Bashing America for seeking to impose its “hegemonic” will on the world, Ozkok’s deputy, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, indirectly accused Washington of ignoring Turkish security concerns in Iraq. The salvo stunned U.S. officials. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz had criticized Turkey’s military for not “playing the strong leadership role that we would expect” during the run-up to war, when Parliament failed to approve U.S. plans for a “northern front.” Still, Washington recently approved a $1 billion aid package, and Secretary of State Colin Powell, visiting Ankara, referred to Turkey as “a good friend.” “We thought it was time to let bygones be bygones,” says one senior U.S. official in Ankara.
What’s going on? Clearly, the Army’s harsh rhetoric was a shot across the bows of Ankara’s civilian government. Turkey’s ruling AK Party, elected last November with a massive mandate to guide the nation into the EU, is preparing an ambitious package of laws designed to bring Turkey into conformity with Brussels’s human-rights norms. That means scrapping restrictions on free speech, curbing police powers and reforming the judiciary–as well as granting Kurds more rights to speak, learn and broadcast their own language. The AK’s –large majority in Parliament almost ensures the laws’ passage. But for now they are stuck in the National Security Council, a secretive military-civilian body that officially is only an advisory council but which in practice is where the Army picks apart laws it doesn’t like.
Turkey’s hopes for the EU would be badly damaged if the Army succeeds in gutting the latest reform package. Even if it doesn’t, the repercussions could be dramatic. Long term, Turkey’s trajectory toward Europe will mean the end of the Army’s role in political life. Europeans will have no truck with a member dominated by its military, however benign. The generals could simply be signaling resistance to efforts to curb their power. Or they may be telling the AK Party to tread lightly, especially on human-rights issues, lest it be ousted as previous governments have been.
As for the United States, Turkey may be protesting Washington’s saber-rattling against neighboring Syria and Iran. Or U.S. policy in northern Iraq, where Ankara fears Kurdish independence and has been covertly supporting Iraqi Turkoman groups in their bid for a greater slice of political influence under the U.S.-run interim administration. To add insult to injury, Washington last week delivered a crushing snub by referring a Turkish offer to send peacekeepers to Iraq to the Poles, who will control a small sector of the country.
Among these unknowns, one thing is certain: Turkey’s generals are playing a risky game. Their skepticism of Washington’s hawkishness may be in tune with the times. But if their meddling jeopardizes Turkey’s EU bid, they risk alienating a large segment of Turkish opinion, as well as the conservative establishment that supports them. Inadvertent or not, blocking the country’s Westward progress would condemn it to a civilizational limbo, torn between East and West but fully part of neither.
